Gagik Tsarukyan decided that he would not participate in the 2013 presidential election, at least formally. Based on his decision, the Prosperous Armenia Party announced that it would not support any candidate in the elections.

This change in the situation not only affects the future actions of political powers that want to participate in the elections but also the entire process and the election results. Of course, I don’t mean that if Tsarukyan runs he would definitely win. As we mentioned many times, he participated behind the scenes in the last two elections, and the only result was the return of the authorities. The same would also happen had Tsarukyan made the opposite decision. Only now we won't have a farce, an imitation of elections.

Additionally, Prosperous Armenia will work underground. You can't imaginea political power with such a serious electorate would just step aside and be anobserver or can afford that wastefulness. If Tsarukyan wants to he will be involved in the process, as the government as well as other political powers can't remain indifferent to the resources he used in the last months in order to gain a tactical negotiating advantage over the government. And the first thing expected in the future is the coming pursuit of those resources. If Tsarukyan, as a leader of the party, has any plans for the future, he has to stay in the game so he won't lose that resource and not betray others. 

Since Tsarukyan made his decision not based on public dialogue and consideration, but under the government's pressure on him and his party members,for his personal and political intentions he would have to play as a shadow on the field of the authorities

Moreover, he already plays on that field willy-nilly, absolutely neglecting thousands of people in his electorate whose votes, in fact, will be uselesssince they're shared between the authorities and different powers in the opposition, and many people won't get out the vote due to disappointment. That suitsthe government's interests. 

If he is not participating in a game, then Tsarukyan has to justify his decision, explain how it was determinedand thus guide his electorate to adopt one position or another and lend support to a political power.That is exactly what Tsarukyan isn't doing. It's not accidental that a similarmoment occurred after the parliamentary elections, when Prosperous Armenia had to decide whether or not to be in the coalition, in other words like the "Rule of Law" party. Thus Tsarukyan personally made a statement to underscore that they were becoming a healthy "alternative" player in politics.

And now the question is: where will this player end up and what is its future role in the political system of Armenia? That will be made clear through the Prosperous Armenia Party's role in the presidential elections and particularly Tsarukyan's future relationshipwith presidentreelectSerzh Sargsyan after a predictable outcome. Whether Tsarukyan will holdhis interesting "not opposition, not government" present position in order to participate in the next presidential and parliamentary elections--considering that Sargsyan will not participate and the struggle for power could be very unpredictable--or yield to the interests of his oligarchs with small and medium-sized businesses bybecoming the government's servant remains to be seen. Of course, it can't be excluded that he can simultaneously do both.  

But it is already possible to say that such a course of events was based on the interests of the Prosperous Armenia Party's oligarchic sector. They will not have to play simultaneously on both fields and will protect their businesses, while confined within the limits of the government's control and visibility, where they wanted to be from the beginning. 

It was inthe interests of the Armenian National Congress, Armenian Revolutionary Federation-Dashnaktsutyun(ARF) and Heritage Party that they would be liberated from Tsarukyan's political influence and the rather unpleasant notion to support him. The fact is, they all realized that these elections are lost with or without Tsarukyan. The reason is not only the atmosphere of mutual distrust, as they were trying to build relationships with each other, but also the collective powerlessness against election fraud conducted by the government, which was demonstrated by the fruitless activities of the united initiative during the parliamentary elections in May.

And whether or not these powers would field their own candidates the defeat would not be as painful as it would if they were in Tsarukyan's boat. The only issue they can solve by participating in the elections is how to gain points for their reputation, and therefore they will build their strategy based on that purpose.

In this sense, the flow of mutual accusations between the opposition and Prosperous Armenia is very interesting, which isthe result of the final pouringof distrust and the opposition's avoidance in taking responsibility for another consolidation failure. Tsarukyan must blame the ARF and the Congress for not showing their absolute trust in him and not believing in him as an alternative player. Thus he would be able to justify his leaving the game. Logically, Tsarukyan could not run because those powers made separate agreements with the government behind his back. But this is simply dishonesty, because it is not the Prosperous Armenia Party that depends on those powers--those powers depend on him.Therefore, he should be the initiator and the one who gives confidence.

In their turn, these oppositional powers should blame Prosperous Armenia for leaving their common struggle and being somewhat dishonest towards them. Of course, they would exaggerate this fact, but there is a bit of rationality in these accusations. The Congress, for example, suffered severe losses by flirting with Prosperous Armenia, bringing itself to the brink of splitting apart. The ARF in fact lost its opportunity for the best use of its political tactics thanks to Prosperous Armenia.By specifying in its platform that the parliamentary system be changed to solely a system of proportional representation, Prosperous Armenia basically made the ARF's other, more important five points of its agenda less important.

The presidential elections, therefore, will not pass according to the simple scenario of an opposition-government confrontation. The authorities will run a good campaign or a bad one, as they won't need to again, and the opposition will be too busy bickering amongst each other.In short, arepeat performance of anabsolutely familiar, boring play.

Thus, Tsarukyan's decision is not going to affect the world. Things will continue. Only the wretched society will suffer.